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Why certainty trumps probability

A house built on rock or a house built on sand?

There’s a huge buzz in the worlds of market research and opinion polling. For years geo-demographics, socio-demographics and customer segmentation (otherwise known as the studies of where people live, what people do and buy, and how people can be categorized into similar groups) have underpinned decision-making and campaign-targeting.  Now a new idea, psychographics, is helping marketers, advertisers and politicians to understand individual behaviors.

Psychographics adds their interests, attitudes and opinions to the information mix.  The now-discredited firm Cambridge Analytica famously worked with the Trump US presidential campaign.  Their use of Facebook data, harvested without explicit permission, led to their downfall.  However, their techniques – data modeling and psychographic profiling – are still used by research consultancies for making sense of big data and predicting how groups of people are likely to behave.

By aggregating these data and applying artificial intelligence they believe they can forecast how groups of people are likely to think.  How will they behave in certain situations? Which way might they vote? That can help with creating advertising and marketing messages that are likely to influence those groups.

Building on sand?

When you’re working in a world of millions of consumers or billions of voters, using black box analysis like this can be successful, or at least satisfactory, in communicating with your target audience.  But consider election polls that predict the wrong outcome and products that fail despite exhaustive research, and it might give you pause. Using likelihoods and tendencies could mean building a business on precarious foundations.

In markets and industries where just hundreds of people have interest or influence in the success of your product, wouldn’t you rather rely on solid, factual, quality-checked, legally-sourced information for each individual?

Solid ground

At MMRG we provide stakeholder information that’s taken direct from the real world.  There’s no prediction, extrapolation or virtual data, nothing random or spurious.  Everything our clients get is live data, researched by real people from publicly available sources.

Come to us to know more about the people of interest for your particular therapy area and you can build your plans on data that’s robust and reliable. Truly impartial, derived using the most rigorous research techniques, and presented in our game changing Thecosystems, which makes it easy to see the connections and networks.  You and your team can get to work, safe in the knowledge that you’re using accurate, compliant data that’s continually updated.

It may not be the height of fashion or generating any media buzz.  But it’s legal, and it’s rock-solid.  And that’s how we, and our clients, like it.

To find out more about how MMRG’s Thecosystems can underpin your business, talk to Peter Byrne.

About the author

Dr Peter Byrne

Our medical and research team is headed by Peter. Although his days in the clinic are behind him, it’s Peter’s clinical acumen, research experience and investigatory skills that enables us to deliver relevant and useful research.

Thecosystems

Connecting the facts.